Fourteen earthquakes with magnitude 5.5 ≤ Mmax
< 6.0 happened
inside the area of investigation of M8S algorithm in 1972-2001.
Nine of them are predicted and five are missed.
The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analysed by the
M8S algorithm. Yellow indicate the area of increased probability of
- The Assisi earthquake (1997.09.26, 43.08°N, 12.81°E, Mmax=6.4)
which was missed in M6.0+ test falls inside the alarm area of M5.5+ test.
- The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm
operates with a variable number of CI's and, as a consequence, the area of
prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of the
catalogue has practically stabilised.
- The M8S algorithm predictions apply to seismogenic areas only and by no
means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic
territories inside circles of investigation.
Two deep and two earthquakes in Croatia are not shown below. These four are
missed by the M8S algorithm.