Fourteen earthquakes with magnitude 5.5 ≤ Mmax < 6.0 happened inside the area of investigation of M8S algorithm in 1972-2001. Nine of them are predicted and five are missed.

Date Latitude, N Longitude, E Depth Mmax M8S prediction Commentary
1975.01.16 38.20 15.78 21 5.5 Yes  
1978.04.15 38.27 15.10 18 5.8 Yes  
1979.09.19 42.72 12.95 6 5.8 No 20 km from alarm
1980.05.28 38.46 14.34 19 5.5 Yes  
1986.11.25 44.12 16.34 30 5.5 No Croatia
1990.05.05 40.78 15.77 10 5.6 Yes  
1990.11.27 43.85 16.63 24 5.6 No Croatia
1991.02.26 40.19 13.82 401 5.5 No Deep focus event
1994.01.05 39.08 15.15 272 5.8 No Deep focus event
1996.10.15 44.79 10.78 10 5.8 Yes  
1997.09.26 43.05 12.88 10 5.9 Yes  
1998.05.18 39.25 15.11 279 5.6 Yes Deep focus event
1998.09.09 40.03 15.98 10 5.9 Yes  
2001.07.17 46.73 11.20 10 5.5 Yes  

The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analysed by the M8S algorithm. Yellow indicate the area of increased probability of M5.5+ earthquakes.

Notes:
  • The Assisi earthquake (1997.09.26, 43.08N, 12.81E, Mmax=6.4) which was missed in M6.0+ test falls inside the alarm area of M5.5+ test.
  • The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm operates with a variable number of CI's and, as a consequence, the area of prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of the catalogue has practically stabilised.
  • The M8S algorithm predictions apply to seismogenic areas only and by no means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic territories inside circles of investigation.

Two deep and two earthquakes in Croatia are not shown below. These four are missed by the M8S algorithm.