The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analysed by the M8S algorithm. Yellow indicate the area of increased probability of M6.5+ earthquakes. The Friuli earthquake has the following parameters: Date 1976.05.06, latitude 46.23N, longitude 13.13E, depth 12 km, Mmax=6.5. The Irpinia earthquake has the following parameters: Date 1980.11.23, latitude 40.85N, longitude 15.28E, depth 18 km, Mmax=6.7. Both of them are inside the area of alarm.

  • The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm operates with a variable number of CI's and, as a consequence, the area of prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of the catalogue has practically stabilised.
  • The M8S algorithm predictions apply to seismogenic areas only and by no means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic territories inside circles of investigation.