Global M8-MSc Intermediate-Term Predictions

In the experiment we aim at prediction of magnitude 8 and above earthquakes in 262 circles of investigation, CIís, each of 667-km radius. Their locations, i.e. coordinates of their centers, are listed in Table 1. The CIís are set along seismic belts Figure 1 with a near-uniform step and cover all the areas on the Earth where the M8 algorithm could run in its original version that requires annual rate of activity of 16 or more mainshocks Figure 2a.

We will also consider predictions of magnitude 7.5 and above earthquakes in 180 CIís, each of 427-km radius. Their locations, i.e. coordinates of their centers, are listed in Table 2. As in case of magnitude 8, the CIís are set along seismic belts Figure 1 and cover all the areas on the Earth where the original version of M8 algorithm could run to predict magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes Figure 2b.

Note: This is an extension of the Test of M8 in Circum Pacific (Healy et al., 1992): all the parameters of the algorithms including the locations of CIís remain the same as they were set in 1990. The Mw magnitudes not reported in the NEIC Hypocenters Data Base before 1993 are not considered. The Test of M8 extended to the Alpine-Hymalayan seismic belt. Furthermore, we now aim at prediction of both M7.5+ and M8.0+ earthquakes and include additional analysis of each alarm by the MSc algorithm.

The locations of the 262 CIís of 667-km radii and those of the 180 CIís of 427-km radii are given in Figure 3.

We will update the global catalog and evaluate predictions each half-year as it was done in (Healy et al., 1992). We presume a continuation of independent preprocessing of the catalog by James Dewey of USGS/NEIC (Golden, CO), John Healy of USGS (Menlo Park), and Vladimir Kossobokov of IEPT (Moscow). In the update, the global catalog is extended with the Weekly Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters, PDE-W, and the PDE-W of the previous update are substituted with the final PDE-Monthly, now published with a delay of about one year. To exclude about two month delay in compilation of the data set and, correspondingly, in our predictions, we now use the NEIC Quick Earthquake Determinations (QED) available on January 1 and July 1 and issue predictions at the beginning of January and July.