| Seismic Roulette |
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| The
simple recipe has a nice analogy that justifies |
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| using
statistical tools available for centuries |
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| since
Blaise Pascal (1623-1662). |
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| l | Consider a
roulette wheel with as many sectors |
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| as the number
of events in a sample catalog, a |
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| sector for
each event. Make your bet according to |
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| prediction:
determine, which events are inside |
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| area of alarm,
and put one chip in each of the |
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| corresponding
sectors. Nature turns the wheel. |
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| l | If seismic
roulette is not perfect… |
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| we
can win systematically ! |
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| Sixth
Workshop on Non-Linear |
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| Dynamics and Earthquake Prediction |
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| The Abdus Salam ICTP, Miramare |
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| 15/10/2001 |
| 31 |