Earthquake prediction algorithm M8

Outline

What is earthquake prediction?

Stages of earthquake prediction

M8 algorithm

General scheme

Data

Prediction aimed at magnitude M₀

Trailing averages

Rate and acceleration of activity

Linear concentration of main shocks

Characteristic of clustering

Vector of description

Criterion – abnormal values

Rules for issuing an alarm

Standard values of parameters

Criterion in the phase space

Trajectory in CI#116, Central California

M8 algorithm performance

Worldwide performance of earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 8.0 or more.

Worldwide performance of earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 7.5 or more.

Conclusions

Some References

Some References (cont.)

Some References (cont.)

Some References (cont.)