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The United States
National Research Council, Panel on
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Earthquake
Prediction of the Committee on Seismology
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suggested the following
definition (1976, p.7):
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“An
earthquake prediction must specify the expected
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magnitude
range, the geographical area within which it will
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occur,
and the time interval within which it will happen with
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sufficient
precision so that the ultimate success or failure
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of
the prediction can readily be judged. Only by careful
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recording
and analysis of failures as well as successes can
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the
eventual success of the total effort be evaluated and
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future
directions charted. Moreover, scientists should also
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assign
a confidence level to each prediction.”
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