Reduction of earthquake
prediction uncertainty:
Algorithm MSc (Mendocino Scenario)

The second approximation prediction method

General scheme

Given a TIP…

The essence of MSc

The essence of MSc (cont.)

The prediction is localized to a spatial projection of all recent
            "sufficiently large" clusters of squares
                           being in state of "anomalous quiescence".

"Anomalous quiescence" suggests high level of seismic activity during formation of a TIP and after its declaration.
"Sufficiently large" size of clusters suggests large scale correlations in recent seismicity.

The standard version of MSc

(a) Santa Cruz Is, 11/28/1985 & 12/21/1985; (b) New Guinea, 02/08/1987 & 10/16/1987; (c) Costa Rica, 04/22/1991; (d) Landers, CA, 06/28/1992; (e) Guam, 08/08/1993; (f) Fiji, 03/09/1994; (g) Shikotan Is, 10/04/1994; (h) Samoa, 04/07/1995.

Qualitative phenomenon

MSc vs. Activity

Worldwide performance of earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 8.0 or more.

Worldwide performance of earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 7.5 or more.

What’s next?

Conclusions

Some References

Some References (cont.)

Some References (cont.)

Some References (cont.)