Reduction of earthquake
prediction uncertainty:
Algorithm MSc (Mendocino Scenario)
The second approximation
prediction method
General scheme
Given a TIP…
The essence of MSc
The essence of MSc
(cont.)
The prediction is
localized to a spatial projection of all recent
"sufficiently
large" clusters of squares
being in state
of "anomalous quiescence".
"Anomalous
quiescence" suggests high level of seismic activity during formation of a
TIP and after its declaration.
"Sufficiently large" size of clusters suggests large scale
correlations in recent seismicity.
The standard version of
MSc
(a) Santa Cruz Is,
11/28/1985 & 12/21/1985; (b) New Guinea, 02/08/1987 & 10/16/1987; (c)
Costa Rica, 04/22/1991; (d) Landers, CA, 06/28/1992; (e) Guam, 08/08/1993; (f)
Fiji, 03/09/1994; (g) Shikotan Is, 10/04/1994; (h) Samoa, 04/07/1995.
Qualitative phenomenon
MSc vs. Activity
Worldwide performance of
earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 8.0 or more.
Worldwide performance of
earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 7.5 or more.
What’s next?
Conclusions
Some References
Some References (cont.)
Some References (cont.)
Some References (cont.)