Application of M8 and MSc algorithms since 1985

Outline

Are earthquakes predictable?

By 1992 all the components necessary for reproducible
real-time prediction, i.e., an unambiguous definition of the algorithms and the data base, were specified in publications

Real-time monitoring ( http://www.mitp.ru or http://www.phys.ualberta.ca/mirrors/mitp )

19/09/1985 Mexico Earthquake

20/10/1986 Kermadek Earthquake

23/05/1989 Macquarie Earthquake

08/08/1993 Guam Earthquake

09/06/1994 Bolivia Deep Earthquake

04/10/1994 Shikotan Earthquake

07/04/1995 Samoa Earthquake

03/12/1995 Iturup Earthquake

17/02/1996 New Guinea Earthquake

25/03/1998 Balleny Sea Earthquake

04/06/2000 South Sumatera Earthquake

23/06/2001 earthquake NEAR COAST OF PERU

False alarm in CI’s ## 156-157

Space-time diagram of M8-MSc alarms

Real-time monitoring ( http://www.mitp.ru or http://www.phys.ualberta.ca/mirrors/mitp )

Case history of the South Sumatera Earthquake

This implies local probability gain of more than 20

Worldwide performance of earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 8.0 or more.

Real-time monitoring ( http://www.mitp.ru or http://www.phys.ualberta.ca/mirrors/mitp )

Worldwide performance of earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 7.5 or more.

Two more case histories

Zero approximation:

16/10/1999 Hector Mine, CA Ms7.4 earthquake

Soft-Gamma-Repeater 1806-20 is the source in Sagittarius, from which more than a hundred X-ray bursts have been detected. The energy of one burst varies from 1.4·10⁴⁰ erg to 5.3·10⁴¹ erg

Conclusions – The Four Paradigms

Some References