Title of research project: Understanding and Modeling of Chaos and Critical Phenomena in the Earth's Lithosphere

Reference number of grant: MB3000

Period of performance: 1994 to 1996

Principal Investigator: Prof. V. Keilis-Borok

Summary:

The research was focused on the instability of the lithosphere, leading to earthquakes and creep, in the time scales from months to years. The lithosphere is regarded as hierarchical non-linear dissipative system. Its basic features were investigated, particularly - scenaria of transition to critical phenomena. It was explored, which of the features are common for many non- linear systems, which - for most of the seismic regions and which are region- specific. The project provided a new theoretical base for its understanding and prediction. Three types of models were investigated: interacting blocks, cellular automata and, in the search of universal features - Burger's equation. These models were tested on phenomenology of the observed fields - seismicity, slow deformations, stress and dynamics of fluids - in the regions of high, low and induced tectonic activity.