## MODELS FOR OPTIMIZATION OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONG. M. Molchan Abstract We consider an interdisciplinary problem of earthquake prediction involving economics. This joint research helps to understand the prediction problem as a whole and reveals additional requirements for seismostatistics. We formulate the problem as an optimal control problem: Having the possibility to declare several types of alerts it is necessary to find an optimal strategy minimizing the total expected losses. Losses include costs both for maintaining alerts and for changing alert types; each successful prediction prevents a certain amount of losses; total expected losses are integrated over the semiinfinite time interval. The discount factor is included in the model. Algorithmic and exact solutions are indicated. Back to |