A real-time intermediate-term prediction of the October 4, 1994, and December 3, 1995, southern Kuril Islands earthquakes

V. G. Kossobokov, P. N. Shebalin, J. H. Healy, J. W. Dewey, and I. N. Tikhonov


Precursory changes of seismicity that are characteristic of magnitude 7.5--8.5 earthquakes were diagnosed in advance of two recent southern Kuril Islands earthquakes: October 4, 1994, $M=8.3$ and December 3, 1995, $M=8.0$. The prediction by the M8 algorithm was issued in July 1992 in the course of the ongoing Russia-U. S. real-time experiment on earthquake prediction for great earthquakes along the circum-Pacific seismic belt. Additional analysis of seismicity in lower-magnitude ranges by another pattern recognition algorithm, known as the ``Mendocino scenario", correctly reduced the area of prediction, in the first case, to the aftershock zone of the 1994 Shikotan Island earthquake and, in the second case, to an area 1.5 times larger than the aftershock zone of the 1995 Iturup Island earthquake.

Back to
Computational Seismology, Vol. 4.