The concentration of ruptures in an intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithm

L. L. Romashkova and V. G. Kossobokov


The observed intermediate-term variations in earthquake sequences count in favor of precursory activation. This phenomenon forms the basis of an earthquake prediction algorithm known as M8. That this approach is efficient has been demonstrated by many years of its application. However, the M8 algorithm is not optimal, nor is the choice of parameters for it the only one possible. This study proposes a modification of one of the algorithm functionals, which is inversely proportional to the criterion for main rupture (Zhurkov's criterion). Calculations were performed for the existing version under certain assumptions. We list and examine results obtained by testing the modified algorithm on the great earthquakes occurring along the Pacific seismic belt.

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Computational Seismology, Vol. 4.