Identification of periods of increased earthquake occurrence probability for the Pamirs and Tien Shan using the CN algorithm and a geodynamic model of the region

V. V. Rozhkova


This paper is a study in the prediction of great earthquakes (magnitude equal to or greater than 7.2) occurring in the Pamirs and South Tien Shan. A geodynamic model based on contemporary neotectonic concepts has been developed to improve the performance of the CN algorithm compared with similar previous studies of the region. The times of increased probability (TIPs) as identified retrospectively by this algorithm precede all five $M\geq 7.2$ earthquakes occurring in the region from 1967 to 1994. The total TIP duration is 32.3% of the observation time. The results demonstrate the usefulness of geodynamics and geologic structure data to improve the location of earthquake precursors.

Back to
Computational Seismology, Vol. 4.